Bets!
List last updated: 4 March 2021
| Against | Bet Date | Proposition | I win if... | If I win I get... | They win if... | If they win they get... | Bet is off if... | Outcome? | My Winnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My dad | 14 Jan 2020 | Ken Jennings wins the GOAT Jepoardy Tournament on 14 Jan 2020 | Ken Jennings does not win | $45 | Ken Jennings wins | $45 | NA | Lost | -$45 |
| David Manheim | 16 Jan 2020 | Who's Vox Future Perfect predictions have the better brier score? | Peter's | $10 | David's | $10 | NA | Won | $10 |
| PredictIt | 28 Oct 2020 - Present | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | -$50.15 after all fees (as of 4 Mar 2021) |
| Polymarket | 28 Oct 2020 - Present | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | +$1830.98 after all fees (as of 4 Mar 2021) |
| RK | 3 Nov 2020 | Democrats win the Alaska Senate? | Republicans win | $20 | Democrats win | $100 | A different party wins | Won | +$20 |
| Daniel Eth | 5 Nov 2020 | Democratic Senate by Feb 2023 | Yes | $100 | No | $2000 | Democratic Senate in 2021 | Won | +$100 |
| Avraham Eisenberg | 30 Nov 2020 | Iran gets a nuke by 2030 absent JCPOA? | Iran gets a nuke by EOY 2030 | $100 | Iran doesn't get a nuke by EOY 2030 | $233.40 | The US re-enters the JCOPA | Pending | Pending |
| @iabvek | 26 Dec 2020 | 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff | Kelly Loeffler (R) wins | $500 | Raphael Warnock (D) wins | $555 | N/A | Lost | -$555 |
| @iabvek | 5 Jan 2021 | 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff | Ds win 1 of the 2 Senate races | $288 | Ds win 2/2 or 0/2 | $1000 | N/A | Won | +$288 |
| @iabvek | 5 Jan 2021 | 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff | Ds win Senate | $887 | Rs win Senate | $1000 | N/A | Lost | -$1000 |
| @iabvek | 6 Jan 2021 | Hawley and/or Cruz get expelled by end of February | Either or both are expelled | $500 | Neither are expelled | $10 | N/A | Lost | -$10 |
| @iabvek | 28 Jan 2021 | NYC Mayor 2021 | Yang does not win | $168.75 | Yang does win | $300 | N/A | Won | +$168.75 |
| @GaetenD | 11 Mar 2021 | US First dose vaccinations | under 100M by 1 Apr CDC update | $110 and SSG belt | >= 100M | $100 | N/A | Won | +$110 and SSG belt |
| @iabvek | 29 Apr 2021 | Pedro Castillo is alive and on the ballot | Yes | $144 | No | $1300 | N/A | Won | +$144 |
| @avi_eisen | 23 Jun 2021 | Joe Biden is the Dem nominee for 2024 | Yes | $212 | No | $1000 | No 2024 D nomination | Pending | Pending |