Bets!

List last updated: 4 March 2021

Against Bet Date Proposition I win if... If I win I get... They win if... If they win they get... Bet is off if... Outcome? My Winnings
My dad 14 Jan 2020 Ken Jennings wins the GOAT Jepoardy Tournament on 14 Jan 2020 Ken Jennings does not win $45 Ken Jennings wins $45 NA Lost -$45
David Manheim 16 Jan 2020 Who's Vox Future Perfect predictions have the better brier score? Peter's $10 David's $10 NA Won $10
PredictIt 28 Oct 2020 - Present Various Various Various Various Various Various Various -$50.15 after all fees (as of 4 Mar 2021)
Polymarket 28 Oct 2020 - Present Various Various Various Various Various Various Various +$1830.98 after all fees (as of 4 Mar 2021)
RK 3 Nov 2020 Democrats win the Alaska Senate? Republicans win $20 Democrats win $100 A different party wins Won +$20
Daniel Eth 5 Nov 2020 Democratic Senate by Feb 2023 Yes $100 No $2000 Democratic Senate in 2021 Won +$100
Avraham Eisenberg 30 Nov 2020 Iran gets a nuke by 2030 absent JCPOA? Iran gets a nuke by EOY 2030 $100 Iran doesn't get a nuke by EOY 2030 $233.40 The US re-enters the JCOPA Pending Pending
@iabvek 26 Dec 2020 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Kelly Loeffler (R) wins $500 Raphael Warnock (D) wins $555 N/A Lost -$555
@iabvek 5 Jan 2021 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Ds win 1 of the 2 Senate races $288 Ds win 2/2 or 0/2 $1000 N/A Won +$288
@iabvek 5 Jan 2021 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Ds win Senate $887 Rs win Senate $1000 N/A Lost -$1000
@iabvek 6 Jan 2021 Hawley and/or Cruz get expelled by end of February Either or both are expelled $500 Neither are expelled $10 N/A Lost -$10
@iabvek 28 Jan 2021 NYC Mayor 2021 Yang does not win $168.75 Yang does win $300 N/A Won +$168.75
@GaetenD 11 Mar 2021 US First dose vaccinations under 100M by 1 Apr CDC update $110 and SSG belt >= 100M $100 N/A Won +$110 and SSG belt
@iabvek 29 Apr 2021 Pedro Castillo is alive and on the ballot Yes $144 No $1300 N/A Won +$144
@avi_eisen 23 Jun 2021 Joe Biden is the Dem nominee for 2024 Yes $212 No $1000 No 2024 D nomination Pending Pending