Bets!

List last updated: 2023 Jan 1
Net winnings: +$798.93
Win-loss: 11-10

Against Bet Date Proposition I win if... If I win... They win if... If they win... Bet is off if... Outcome? My Winnings
My dad 2020 Jan 14 Ken Jennings wins the GOAT Jepoardy Tournament on 14 Jan 2020 Ken Jennings does not win +$45 Ken Jennings wins -$45 NA Lost -$45
David Manheim 2020 Jan 16 Who's Vox Future Perfect predictions have the better brier score? Peter's +$10 David's -$10 NA Won +$10
PredictIt 2020 Oct 28 - Present Various Various Various Various Various Various Various +$1521.97 after all fees (as of 2022 Nov 22)
Polymarket 2020 Oct 28 - Present Various Various Various Various Various Various Various +$1609.70 after all fees (as of 2023 Jan 1)
RK 2020 Nov 3 Democrats win the Alaska Senate? Republicans win +$20 Democrats win -$100 A different party wins Won +$20
Daniel Eth 2020 Nov 5 Democratic Senate by 2023 Feb Yes +$100 No -$2000 Democratic Senate in 2021 Won +$100
Avraham Eisenberg 2020 Nov 30 Iran gets a nuke by 2030 absent JCPOA? Iran gets a nuke by EOY 2030 +$100 Iran doesn't get a nuke by EOY 2030 -$233.40 The US re-enters the JCOPA Cancelled Cancelled
@iabvek 2020 Dec 26 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Kelly Loeffler (R) wins +$500 Raphael Warnock (D) wins -$555 N/A Lost -$555
@iabvek 2021 Jan 5 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Ds win 1 of the 2 Senate races +$288 Ds win 2/2 or 0/2 -$1000 N/A Won +$288
@iabvek 2021 Jan 5 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Ds win Senate +$887 Rs win Senate -$1000 N/A Lost -$1000
@iabvek 2021 Jan 6 Hawley and/or Cruz get expelled by end of February Either or both are expelled +$500 Neither are expelled -$10 N/A Lost -$10
@iabvek 2021 Jan 28 NYC Mayor 2021 Yang does not win +$168.75 Yang does win -$300 N/A Won +$168.75
@GaetenD 2021 Mar 11 US First dose vaccinations under 100M by 1 Apr CDC update +$110, +SSG belt >= 100M -$100 N/A Won +$110 and SSG belt
@iabvek 2021 Apr 29 Pedro Castillo is alive and on the ballot Yes +$144 No -$1300 N/A Won +$144
@avi_eisen 2021 Jun 23 Joe Biden is the Dem nominee for 2024 Yes +$212 No -$1000 No 2024 D nomination Cancelled Cancelled
@TruthBomber_ 2021 Sep 14 James Spears is Britney Spear's conservator on 2021 Oct 1 No +$100 Yes -The SSG Belt NA Won +$100
Erik Thulin 2021 Oct 5 Trump is 2024 POTUS No +$200 Yes -$400 Trump is not the 2024 R Nominee Pending Pending
Ian Lazaran 2021 Oct 29 McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov Yes +$200 No -$200 N/A Lost -$200
Obamoracle 2021 Oct 30 McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov Yes +$100 No -$100, -belt N/A Lost -$100 and lost SSG belt
Andrew N 2021 Oct 30 McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov Yes +$500 No -$500 N/A Lost -$500
Mom / Dad 12 Feb 2022 Superbowl LVI Rams win +$10 Bengals win -$17 N/A Won +$10
Taras 2021 Oct 30 Russia invades Ukraine Yes +$1500 No -$500 N/A Won +$1500
Daniel Eth 2022 Mar 15 2024 POTUS Biden doesn't run + Trump runs +$500 Biden runs + Trump doesn't run -$500 (Biden runs + Trump runs) or (Biden doesn't run + Trump doesn't run) Pending Pending
Edmund Nelson 2022 Sep 19 US Gun Confiscation by EOY 2027 Doesn't happen +$45.45 Happens -$500 N/A Pending Pending
Simeon Campos 2022 Oct 3 M#5121 under 2030 by EOM 2023 Jul No +$50 Yes -$200 Question resolves ambiguous Pending Pending
Nathan Young 2022 Oct 19 Ds have Senate control after 2022 election Yes +$50 No -$50 N/A Won +$50
Ezra Newman 2022 Oct 31 Ds have House control after 2022 election Yes +$2000 No -$440 N/A Lost -$440
@PoliticalKiwi 2022 Nov 11 Ds have House control after 2022 election Yes +$11290 No -$850 N/A Lost -$850
@PoliticalKiwi 2022 Nov 11 Hobbs wins AZ Gov No +$800 Yes -$600 N/A Lost -$600
@CharlesD353 2023 Jan 1 2024 US DNom goes to Biden or Harris Yes +$100 No -$567 N/A Pending Pending
@CharlesD353 2023 Jan 1 2024 US RNom goes to Trump Yes +$600 No -$400 N/A Pending Pending
@iabvek 2023 Jan 1 2024 US RNom goes to Trump or DeSantis Yes +$1000 No -$4550 N/A Pending Pending
@BirdAppKJ 2023 Jan 8 2024 US RNom goes to Trump or DeSantis Yes +$500 No -$2275 N/A Pending Pending
@LdsEa 2023 Jan 14 China invades Taiwan (defined by M#13938) by EOY 2023 No +$90 No -$5000 M#13938 resolves ambiguous Pending Pending
Matthew Barnett 2023 Jan 19 Matt wins his AI LLM bet with Bryan No +$2000 Yes -$500 The bet with Bryan is called off Pending Pending
@DeepDishEnjoyer 2023 Jan 29 >50% population loss by EOY 2031 Yes +$25 million No -$1 N/A Pending Pending