Bets!

List last updated: 2022 Dec 4
Net winnings: +$798.93
Win-loss: 11-10

Against Bet Date Proposition I win if... If I win... They win if... If they win... Bet is off if... Outcome? My Winnings
My dad 14 Jan 2020 Ken Jennings wins the GOAT Jepoardy Tournament on 14 Jan 2020 Ken Jennings does not win +$45 Ken Jennings wins -$45 NA Lost -$45
David Manheim 16 Jan 2020 Who's Vox Future Perfect predictions have the better brier score? Peter's +$10 David's -$10 NA Won +$10
PredictIt 28 Oct 2020 - Present Various Various Various Various Various Various Various +$1521.97 after all fees (as of 22 Nov 2022)
Polymarket 28 Oct 2020 - Present Various Various Various Various Various Various Various +$1609.70 after all fees (as of 1 Jan 2022)
RK 3 Nov 2020 Democrats win the Alaska Senate? Republicans win +$20 Democrats win -$100 A different party wins Won +$20
Daniel Eth 5 Nov 2020 Democratic Senate by Feb 2023 Yes +$100 No -$2000 Democratic Senate in 2021 Won +$100
Avraham Eisenberg 30 Nov 2020 Iran gets a nuke by 2030 absent JCPOA? Iran gets a nuke by EOY 2030 +$100 Iran doesn't get a nuke by EOY 2030 -$233.40 The US re-enters the JCOPA Pending Pending
@iabvek 26 Dec 2020 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Kelly Loeffler (R) wins +$500 Raphael Warnock (D) wins -$555 N/A Lost -$555
@iabvek 5 Jan 2021 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Ds win 1 of the 2 Senate races +$288 Ds win 2/2 or 0/2 -$1000 N/A Won +$288
@iabvek 5 Jan 2021 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff Ds win Senate +$887 Rs win Senate -$1000 N/A Lost -$1000
@iabvek 6 Jan 2021 Hawley and/or Cruz get expelled by end of February Either or both are expelled +$500 Neither are expelled -$10 N/A Lost -$10
@iabvek 28 Jan 2021 NYC Mayor 2021 Yang does not win +$168.75 Yang does win -$300 N/A Won +$168.75
@GaetenD 11 Mar 2021 US First dose vaccinations under 100M by 1 Apr CDC update +$110, +SSG belt >= 100M -$100 N/A Won +$110 and SSG belt
@iabvek 29 Apr 2021 Pedro Castillo is alive and on the ballot Yes +$144 No -$1300 N/A Won +$144
@avi_eisen 23 Jun 2021 Joe Biden is the Dem nominee for 2024 Yes +$212 No -$1000 No 2024 D nomination Pending Pending
@TruthBomber_ 14 Sep 2021 James Spears is Britney Spear's conservator on 2021 Oct 1 No +$100 Yes -The SSG Belt NA Won +$100
Erik Thulin 5 Oct 2021 Trump is 2024 POTUS No +$200 Yes -$400 Trump is not the 2024 R Nominee Pending Pending
Ian Lazaran 29 Oct 2021 McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov Yes +$200 No -$200 N/A Lost -$200
Obamoracle 30 Oct 2021 McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov Yes +$100 No -$100, -belt N/A Lost -$100 and lost SSG belt
Andrew N 30 Oct 2021 McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov Yes +$500 No -$500 N/A Lost -$500
Mom / Dad 12 Feb 2022 Superbowl LVI Rams win +$10 Bengals win -$17 N/A Won +$10
Taras 30 Oct 2021 Russia invades Ukraine Yes +$1500 No -$500 N/A Won +$1500
Daniel Eth 15 Mar 2022 2024 POTUS Biden doesn't run + Trump runs +$500 Biden runs + Trump doesn't run -$500 (Biden runs + Trump runs) or (Biden doesn't run + Trump doesn't run) Pending Pending
Edmund Nelson 19 Sep 2022 US Gun Confiscation by EOY 2027 Doesn't happen +$45.45 Happens -$500 N/A Pending Pending
Simeon Campos 3 Oct 2022 M#5121 under 2030 by EOM 2023 Jul No +$50 Yes -$200 Question resolves ambiguous Pending Pending
Nathan Young 19 Oct 2022 Ds have Senate control after 2022 election Yes +$50 No -$50 N/A Won +$50
Ezra Newman 31 Oct 2022 Ds have House control after 2022 election Yes +$2000 No -$440 N/A Lost -$440
@PoliticalKiwi 11 Nov 2022 Ds have House control after 2022 election Yes +$11290 No -$850 N/A Lost -$850
@PoliticalKiwi 11 Nov 2022 Hobbs wins AZ Gov No +$800 Yes -$600 N/A Lost -$600