Bets!
List last updated: 2025 Aug 16
Net winnings: +19,743.96
Win-loss: 25-16
| Against | Bet Date | Proposition | I win if... | If I win... | They win if... | If they win... | Bet is off if... | Outcome? | My Winnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PredictIt, Kalshi, etc. | 2020 Oct 28 - Present | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | Various | +$24,306 after all fees |
| My dad | 2020 Jan 14 | Ken Jennings wins the GOAT Jepoardy Tournament on 14 Jan 2020 | Ken Jennings does not win | +$45 | Ken Jennings wins | -$45 | N/A | Lost | -$45 |
| David Manheim | 2020 Jan 16 | Who's Vox Future Perfect predictions have the better brier score? | Peter's | +$10 | David's | -$10 | N/A | Won | +$10 |
| RK | 2020 Nov 3 | Democrats win the Alaska Senate? | Republicans win | +$20 | Democrats win | -$100 | A different party wins | Won | +$20 |
| Daniel Eth | 2020 Nov 5 | Democratic Senate before 2043 | Yes | +$100 | No | -$2000 | Democratic Senate in 2021 | Won | +$100 |
| Avraham Eisenberg | 2020 Nov 30 | Iran gets a nuke by 2030 absent JCPOA? | Iran gets a nuke by EOY 2030 | +$100 | Iran doesn't get a nuke by EOY 2030 | -$233.40 | The US re-enters the JCOPA | Cancelled | Cancelled |
| @iabvek | 2020 Dec 26 | 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff | Kelly Loeffler (R) wins | +$500 | Raphael Warnock (D) wins | -$555 | N/A | Lost | -$555 |
| @iabvek | 2021 Jan 5 | 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff | Ds win 1 of the 2 Senate races | +$288 | Ds win 2/2 or 0/2 | -$1000 | N/A | Won | +$288 |
| @iabvek | 2021 Jan 5 | 2020 Georgia Special Election Runoff | Ds win Senate | +$887 | Rs win Senate | -$1000 | N/A | Lost | -$1000 |
| @iabvek | 2021 Jan 6 | Hawley and/or Cruz get expelled by end of February | Either or both are expelled | +$500 | Neither are expelled | -$10 | N/A | Lost | -$10 |
| @iabvek | 2021 Jan 28 | NYC Mayor 2021 | Yang does not win | +$168.75 | Yang does win | -$300 | N/A | Won | +$168.75 |
| @GaetenD | 2021 Mar 11 | US First dose vaccinations | under 100M by 1 Apr CDC update | +$110, +SSG belt | >= 100M | -$100 | N/A | Won | +$110 and SSG belt |
| @iabvek | 2021 Apr 29 | Pedro Castillo is alive and on the ballot | Yes | +$144 | No | -$1300 | N/A | Won | +$144 |
| @avi_eisen | 2021 Jun 23 | Biden is the Dem nominee for 2024 | Yes | +$212 | No | -$1000 | No 2024 D nomination | Cancelled | Cancelled |
| @TruthBomber_ | 2021 Sep 14 | James Spears is Britney Spear's conservator on 2021 Oct 1 | No | +$100 | Yes | -The SSG Belt | N/A | Won | +$100 |
| Erik Thulin | 2021 Oct 5 | Trump is 2024 POTUS | No | +$200 | Yes | -$400 | Trump is not the 2024 R Nominee | Lost | -$400 |
| Ian Lazaran | 2021 Oct 29 | McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov | Yes | +$200 | No | -$200 | N/A | Lost | -$200 |
| Obamoracle | 2021 Oct 30 | McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov | Yes | +$100 | No | -$100, -belt | N/A | Lost | -$100 and lost SSG belt |
| Andrew N | 2021 Oct 30 | McAullife wins 2020 VA Gov | Yes | +$500 | No | -$500 | N/A | Lost | -$500 |
| Mom / Dad | 12 Feb 2022 | Superbowl LVI | Rams win | +$10 | Bengals win | -$17 | N/A | Won | +$10 |
| Taras | 2021 Oct 30 | Russia invades Ukraine | Yes | +$1500 | No | -$500 | N/A | Won | +$1500 |
| Daniel Eth | 2022 Mar 15 | 2024 POTUS | Biden doesn't run + Trump runs | +$500 | Biden runs + Trump doesn't run | -$500 | (Biden runs + Trump runs) or (Biden doesn't run + Trump doesn't run) | Called off | N/A |
| Edmund Nelson | 2022 Sep 19 | US Gun Confiscation by EOY 2027 | Doesn't happen | +$45.45 | Happens | -$500 | N/A | Pending | Pending |
| Simeon Campos | 2022 Oct 3 | M#5121 under 2030 by EOM 2023 Jul | No | +$50 | Yes | -$200 | Question resolves ambiguous | Won | +$50 |
| Nathan | 2022 Oct 19 | Ds have Senate control after 2022 election | Yes | +$50 | No | -$50 | N/A | Won | +$50 |
| Ezra Newman | 2022 Oct 31 | Ds have House control after 2022 election | Yes | +$2000 | No | -$440 | N/A | Lost | -$440 |
| @PoliticalKiwi | 2022 Nov 11 | Ds have House control after 2022 election | Yes | +$11290 | No | -$850 | N/A | Lost | -$850 |
| @PoliticalKiwi | 2022 Nov 11 | Hobbs wins AZ Gov | No | +$800 | Yes | -$600 | N/A | Lost | -$600 |
| @CharlesD353 | 2023 Jan 1 | 2024 US DNom goes to Biden or Harris | Yes | +$100 | No | -$567 | N/A | Won | +$100 |
| @CharlesD353 | 2023 Jan 1 | 2024 US RNom goes to Trump | Yes | +$600 | No | -$400 | N/A | Won | +$600 |
| @iabvek | 2023 Jan 1 | 2024 US RNom goes to Trump or DeSantis | Yes | +$1000 | No | -$4550 | N/A | Won (closed early) | +$112 |
| @BirdAppKJ | 2023 Jan 8 | 2024 US RNom goes to Trump or DeSantis | Yes | +$500 | No | -$2275 | N/A | Won (closed early) | +$56 |
| @LdsEa | 2023 Jan 14 | China invades Taiwan (defined by M#13938) by EOY 2023 | No | +$90 | No | -$6300 | M#13938 resolves ambiguous | Won | +$90 |
| Matthew Barnett | 2023 Jan 19 | Matt wins his AI LLM bet with Bryan | No | +$2000 | Yes | -$500 | The bet with Bryan is called off | Lost | -$500 |
| @DeepDishEnjoyer | 2023 Jan 29 | >50% population loss by EOY 2031 | Yes | +$25 million | No | -$1 | N/A | Pending | Pending |
| Bruce | 2023 Apr 17 | Trump is confirmed to be POTUS 2024 by the Electoral College | Yes | +$5 | No | -$1.06 | N/A | Won | +$5 |
| @iabvek | 2023 May 6 | RFK Jr. gets 1+ delegate in 2024 | No | +$400 | Yes | -$600 | RFK Jr. suspends campaign before EOM 2024 Mar | N/A | N/A |
| Bruce | 2023 Jun 12 | any part of M#17447 resolves prior to 2029 | No | +$5 | Yes | -$166.50 | Question annulled or ambiguous | Pending | Pending |
| Nathan | 2023 Jun 24 | M#13930 Putin remains in power | Yes | +$105 | No | -$195 | Question annulled or ambiguous | Won (closed early) | +$45 |
| @SmoLurks | 2023 Jul 2 | Biden is the Dem nominee for 2024 | Yes | +$857.14 | No | -$2000 | No 2024 D nomination | Lost | -$2000 |
| @SmoLurks | 2023 Aug 16 | Dems win Minnesota in 2024 POTUS | Yes | +$150.54 | No | -$2000 | Third party wins MN | Won | +$150.54 |
| Ege Erdil | 2023 Nov 19 | On 2024 Feb 19, Nathan says/thinks OpenAI removing Sam was net positive | Yes | +$2000 | No | -$1000 | Nathan is not sure | Lost | -$1000 |
| Linch | 2024 Feb 7 | Location of event is same as last year | Yes | +$10 | No | -$30 | Lost | -$30 | |
| Simeon Campos | 2024 May 30 | Anthropic safety resignation by EOM2026May? | No | +$60 | Yes | -$240 | Pending | Pending | |
| Oli Habryka | 2024 May 31 | Anthropic safety resignation by EOM2025May? | No | +$25 | Yes | -$225 | Won | +25* | |
| Josh Morisson | 2024 Jun 30 | Biden DNOM? | Yes | +$80 | No | -$120 | Lost | -$120 | |
| Eric Neyman | 2024 Oct 27 | Harris wins AK | No | +$2 | No | -$100 | Won | +$2 | |
| Eric Neyman | 2024 Oct 27 | Harris wins OH | No | +$4 | No | -$100 | Won | +$4 | |
| Eric Neyman | 2024 Oct 27 | Harris wins IA | No | +$6 | No | -$100 | Won | +$6 | |
| [anon] | 2025 Jul 28 | [nonpublic] | No | +$41.67 | Yes | -$500 | Won | +$41.67 |
*Pending payout