All my writing across the internet.

• Human survival is a policy choice (2 Jun 2022)
• The chance of accidental nuclear war has been going down (31 May 2022)
• Announcing "Pasteur's Cube" (30 May 2022)
• Taskmaster (applescript) (16 May 2022)
• Slack watcher (applescript) (16 May 2022)
• Peter Wildeford on Forecasting and Scaling Non-Profits [Podcast] (13 Apr 2022)
• In current EA, scalability matters (3 Mar 2022)
• My Favorite Articles of Jun-Dec 2021 (1 Jan 2022)
• VA GOV 2021 Forecast Failure Retrospective [Twitter] (2 Nov 2021)
• Notes on "Managing to Change the World" (8 Oct 2021)
• Messing around with 2024 electoral maps [Twitter] (6 Oct 2021)
• Improving over 538, here are some ideas for improving election prediction methods going forward [Twitter] (30 Sep 2021)
• 2021 Canada Forecasting Models Retrospective [Twitter] (28 Sep 2021)
• I'm still mesmerized by timezones... there's some real weird stuff [Twitter] (21 Sep 2021)
• Successful Forecasting Retrospective: 2021 NYC Mayoral Primary (3 Aug 2021)
• Notes on "High Growth Handbook" (11 Jul 2021)
• Peru Elections and New York Mayor [Podcast] (8 May 2021)
• A Very Special TX Election & More [Podcast] (1 May 2021)
• Gaetz and Confirmation Markets [Podcast] (19 Apr 2021)
• POTUS Approval Rating vs. House Popular Vote [Twitter] (15 Apr 2021)
• How Peter Hurford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited on Polymarket [Podcast/Video] (8 Apr 2021)
• COVID Cases + Vaccination Model, 17 Feb - 1 Apr, Retrospective [Twitter] (2 Apr 2021)
• Why Texas's Reopening Didn't Spike Cases [Twitter] (26 Mar 2021)
• COVID Situation Update, 26 Mar [Twitter] (26 Mar 2021)
• OMP #7: All Noise, No Signal [Podcast] (16 Mar 2021)
• @ScottAdamsSays calibration curve [Twitter] (11 Mar 2021)
• 538 Pollster Grades are not Particularly Predictive of Poll Quality [Twitter] (8 Mar 2021)
• Six Reasons Why Opinion Polling is More Accurate Than Election Forecast Polling [Twitter] (3 Mar 2021)
• OMP #6: Raising the Bar for Polling NYC and Vaccine Hesitancy [Podcast] (23 Feb 2021)
• OMP #5: NYC Mayoral Candidates: Poked, Prodded, Weighed and Measured [Podcast] (29 Jan 2021)
• OMP #4: Forecast Feud: Are Polls Useless or Just Bad? [Podcast] (22 Jan 2021)
• OMP #3: Ranked Choice Voting and the NYC Mayoral Race [Podcast] (18 Jan 2021)
• OMP #2: The Model Went Down to Georgia [Podcast] (11 Jan 2021)
• OMP #1: Introducing the Open Model Project [Podcast] (4 Jan 2021)
• Modeling the Georgia Senate Runoff Elections (28 Dec 2020)
• Georgia Senate Runoff Polling Report (28 Dec 2020)
• How to Release a New Python Package (3 Nov 2020)
• 2020 CA Proposition Models (2 Nov 2020)
• Super Simple House + Senate Model [2 Nov, Final] (2 Nov 2020)
• Super Simple Trump-Biden Model [2 Nov, Final] (2 Nov 2020)
• Will we know the Trump-Biden results on election night? I think 70% yes. [Twitter] (29 Oct 2020)
• RP 2020 Election Poll: Biden at +9.8 support nationally in Rethink Priorities poll, Dems +5.3 for Congress (28 Oct 2020)
• RP 2020 Election Poll: California Propositions Poll (28 Oct 2020)
• How to install latex and xelatex on Mac so that Jupyter "Download as PDF" will work (20 Aug 2020)
• List of my Favorite Named Aphorisms, Dictums, Laws, Maxims, and Rules to Live By (23 Jun 2020)
• Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief for 29 April (29 Apr 2020)
• Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief for 2 April (2 Apr 2020)
• US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! (1 Apr)
• Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief for 29 March (29 Mar 2020)
• Coronavirus Research Ideas for EAs (27 Mar 2020)
• U.S. Ballot Initiatives as a Pathway for EA Policy (EA Global Talk Transcript) (15 Jan 2020)
• co-authored Intervention Profile: Ballot Initiatives (13 Jan 2020)
• We're Rethink Priorities. AMA (13 Dec 2019)
• co-authored Rethink Priorities 2019 Impact and Strategy (2 Dec 2019)
• Opinion: Estimating Invertebrate Sentience (6 Nov 2019)
• EA Survey 2018 Series: Do EA Survey Takers Keep Their GWWC Pledge? (16 Jun 2019)
• Is EA Growing? EA Growth Metrics for 2018 (1 Jun 2019)
• EA Survey 2018 Series: How Long Do EAs Stay in EA? (30 May 2019)
• co-authored Detecting Morally Significant Pain in Nonhumans: Some Philosophical Difficulties (21 Dec 2018)
• co-authored Rethink Priorities Plans for 2019 (17 Dec 2018)
• co-authored EA Survey Series 2018: How do people get involved in EA? (17 Nov 2018)
• co-authored EA Survey 2018 Series: Distribution and Analysis Methodology (18 Oct 2018)
• co-authored EA Survey 2018 Series: Community Demographics & Characteristics (20 Sep 2018)
• co-authored Announcing PriorityWiki: A Cause Prioritization Wiki (19 June 2018)
• co-authored Animal Equality showed that advocating for diet change works. But is it cost-effective? (7 June 2018)
• co-authored Lessons for estimating cost-effectiveness (of vaccines) more effectively (6 June 2018)
• co-authored Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccines: Appendices and Endnotes (8 May 2018)
• co-authored Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccines: Exploring Model Uncertainty and Takeaways (8 May 2018)
• co-authored What is the cost-effectiveness of researching vaccines? (8 May 2018)
• co-authored How Beneficial Have Vaccines Been? (5 May 2018)
• Kaggle Toxic Comment Competition Solution - 34th Solution, With Lots of FE and Poor Understanding of NNs (21 Mar 2018)
• co-authored Announcing Rethink Priorities (2 Mar 2018)
• co-authored How much does it cost to rollout a vaccine? (26 Feb 2018)
• co-authored How much does it cost to research and develop a vaccine? (24 Feb 2018)
• Kaggle Mercari Competition Solution - 18th Place with no Neural Nets - LGB and FM - 0.40604 (21 Feb 2018)
• co-authored What is Animal Farming in Rural Zambia Like? A Site Visit (19 Feb 2018)
• R for Humans (16 Feb 2018)
• Four Organizations EAs Should Fully Fund for 2018 (12 Dec 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: How do People Get Into EA? (16 Nov 2017)
• Look at Mint transaction data via R (2 Nov 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Have EA Priorities Changed Over Time? (6 Oct 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Qualitative Comments Summary (21 Sep 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Demographics II (18 Sep 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Donation Data (12 Sep 2017)
• co-authored Is EA Growing? Some EA Growth Metrics for 2017 (6 Sep 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Cause Area Preferences (1 Sep 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Community Demographics & Beliefs (29 Aug 2017)
• co-authored EA Survey 2017 Series: Distribution and Analysis Methodology (29 Aug 2017)
• co-authored How Long Does it Take to Research and Develop a New Vaccine? (28 June 2017)
• Can We Apply Start-Up Investing Principles to Non-Profits? (26 June 2017)
• The Best Deals in AWS Spot Instances (1 June 2017)
• Blogging is More Fun When It's Group Blogging (22 May 2017)
• Initial stab at a Data Science 101 Curriculum (4 May 2017)
• Meat consumption by country, kg per capita (16 Apr 2017)
• Notes on "Working Identity" (14 Apr 2017)
• co-authored How do EA Orgs Account for Uncertainty in their Analysis? (5 Apr 2017)
• Value of Criminal Justice Reform (28 Mar 2017)
• Vowpal Platypus: Very Fast Multi-Core Machine Learning in Python (2 Mar 2017)
• R Packages, Abridged (15 Feb 2017)
• Advanced R, Abridged (15 Feb 2017)
• Git 101, with Exercises (15 Feb 2017)
• co-authored What if you’re working on the wrong cause? Preliminary thoughts on how long to spend exploring vs exploiting. (6 Feb 2017)
• co-authored Essay contest: general considerations for evaluating small-scale giving opportunities ($300 for winning submission) (19 Jan 2017)
• How Should I Spend My Time (7 Jan 2017)
• Why I Took The Giving What We Can Pledge (4 Jan 2017)
• Value of Cause Prioritization Efforts (2 Jan 2017)
• The Value of Time Spent Fundraising: Four Examples (22 Dec 2016)
• What is the Expected Value of Creating a GiveWell Top Charity? (17 Dec 2016)
• How many hits does hits-based giving get? A concrete study idea to find out (and a $1500 offer for implementation) (9 Dec 2016)
• How Much Do I Expect Donate in 2016-2019? (4 Dec 2016)
• Thoughts on the Reducetarian Lab MTurk Study (2 Dec 2016)
• Average Cost-Effectiveness of GiveWell (rough guess) (29 Nov 2016)
• Using a Spreadsheet to Make Good Decisions: Five Examples (25 Nov 2016)
• Students for High Impact Charity: Review and $10K Grant (27 Sep 2016)
• A Method for Automatic Trustworthiness in Study Pre-Registration (25 Sep 2016)
• co-authored Scaling Down Charity Science Outreach (12 Aug 2016)
• Using Amazon's Mechanical Turk for Animal Advocacy: Opportunities and Challenges (2 Aug 2016)
• co-authored The 2015 Survey of Effective Altruists: Results and Analysis (29 July 2016)
• How to modularize your py.test fixtures (28 July 2016)
• Five Ways to Handle Flow-Through Effects (27 July 2016)
• The Value of Being Flexible (23 Jun 2016)
• How Should We Prioritize Cause Prioritization? (13 Jun 2016)
• A Case for Empirical Cause Prioritization (6 Jun 2016)
• Global poverty could be more cost-effective than animal advocacy (even for non-speciesists) (31 May 2016)
• More Thoughts (and Analysis) on the Mercy for Animals Online Ads Study (26 May 2016)
• What's the fastest way to determine the number of rows of a CSV in R? (19 May 2016)
• Notes on "Peopleware" (11 May 2016)
• co-authored Charity Guide: Iron and Folic Acid Fortification (9 May 2016)
• Notes on "High Output Management" (7 May 2016)
• co-authored Charity Guide: Conditional Cash Transfers (7 May 2016)
• co-authored Effects of Major Events on EA Activity (29 Apr 2016)
• .impact's Pivot to Focus Projects (29 Apr 2016)
• co-authored Charity Guide: Poverty Research Organization (27 Apr 2016)
• co-authored Charity Guide: SMS Reminders for Immunizations (25 Apr 2016)
• co-authored Whats So Great About Increasing IQ? (31 Mar 2016)
• co-authored Six Examples of Measuring Incomplete Metrics ...and How to Fix Them (26 Mar 2016)
• Is EA growing? A concrete study idea to find out (and a $100 offer for implementation) (21 Feb 2016)
• Do EAs underestimate opportunities to create many small benefits? (24 Jan 2016)
• Notes and Reflections on "Deep Work" by Cal Newport (24 Jan 2016)
• How does code get parallelized? (17 Oct 2015)
• What is on an open source project website?: Five case studies (4 Oct 2015)
• EA risks falling into a "meta trap". But we can avoid it. (25 Aug 2015)
• Peter Hurford thinks that a large proportion of people should earn to give long term (17 Aug 2015)
• Moral Economics in Practice: Musing on Acausal Payments through Donations (12 Aug 2015)
• One Year Out: How I Became a Better Programmer (4 Jul 2015)
• We might be getting a lot of new EAs. What are we going to do when they arrive? (25 Mar 2015)
• The 2014 Survey of Effective Altruists: Results and Analysis (17 Mar 2015)
• EA is the Best Choice I've Ever Made (30 Jan 2015)
• Pomodoro for Programmers (24 Dec 2014)
• How to Read (20 Dec 2014)
• You Have a Set Amount of Weirdness Points. Spend Them Wisely. (27 Nov 2014)
• Productivity 101 for Beginners (5 Nov 2014)
• A Database of Time Zone by Zip Code (for Applications) (29 Oct 2014)
• How to Use XAMPP to Test PHP on Your Own Computer (29 Oct 2014)
• Update on Peter's Career Story (14 Oct 2014)
• Productivity for Programmers: Gmail Shortcuts (11 Oct 2014)
• A Brief Summary of "How to Raise Money Without Killing a Kitten" (16 Sep 2014)
• What Small Things Can an EA Do? (14 Sep 2014)
• Where Do The Extremely Poor Work? (20 Jul 2014)
• What Do the Extremely Poor Buy? (17 Jul 2014)
• How Do the Extremely Poor Live? (12 Jun 2014)
• Star Trek Deep Space Nine Abridged: Dominion War Edition Wathcing List (1 Jun 2014)
• What has .impact done so far? (31 Mar 2014)
• Case study: choosing between working at Effective Altruist organisations, Earning to Give and Graduate school (9 Jan 2014)
• Introducing .impact (5 Jan 2014)
• Where I'm Giving and Why (24 Dec 2013)
• Utilitarianism Debate Between Peter Hurford and Alonzo Fyfe (19 Nov 2013)
• A Meta-Ethics FAQ (22 Oct 2013)
• Doing Important Research on Amazon's Mechanical Turk? (25 Sep 2013)
• How I Am Productive (27 Aug 2013)
• Where I've Changed My Mind on My Approach to Speculative Causes (16 Aug 2013)
• The Challenges of "Great People" as a Model for Social Change (9 Aug 2013)
• What Would it Take to "Prove" a Speculative Cause? (7 Aug 2013)
• How Does MIRI Know it Has a Medium Probability of Success? (1 Aug 2013)
• Don't Call Us a Charitable-Industrial Complex (1 Aug 2013)
• Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too) (29 Jul 2013)
• How to Build a Community (15 May 2013)
• Questions for Moral Realists (13 Feb 2013)
• The Community That Stays Together, Gives Together (27 Nov 2012)
• In Giving, It Pays to Precommit (23 Oct 2012)
• Why Don't People Help Others More? (13 Aug 2012)
• Is Mew a Ditto? (originally 12 Jan 2011, reposted)
• Visualizing the Monty Hall Problem (originally 17 Apr 2009, reposted)